Introduction

In 2008, antiretroviral sales across the seven major markets totaled $10.7 billion, growing at a CAGR of 12.8% between 2005 and 2008. Datamonitor expects this expansion to slow down. Despite drivers such as new product launches, earlier treatment initiation, decreasing mortality and an increase in HIV prevalence, a series of patent expiries will impact branded sales from 2011.

Scope

• Analysis of the current and future market dynamics for antiretrovirals across the US, EU, Japan, supported by KOL insights
• Detailed sales forecasts for the major antiretroviral classes, molecules and brands in each of the seven major markets.
• Assessments of the key marketed antiretroviral brands and late stage pipeline products.
• Snapshot of HIV drug sales in the Rest of World by region

Highlights

The highest selling drug in 2008 was Truvada, with revenues of $1.9 billion across the seven major markets, closely followed by Atripla with sales of $1.5 billion. Truvada's success has been driven by its popularity as the backbone of choice for highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) regimens across several lines of therapy.

Several drugs are currently in Phase III development, including Tibotec/Johnson & Johnson's rilpivirine, Schering-Plough's vicriviroc and Gilead's elvitegravir. In Datamonitor's opinion, rilpivirine and the Quad pill containing Truvada and elvitegravir have the strongest chance of commercial success.

Given the growing concerns over nucleoside toxicity, Datamonitor believes development of a nucleoside-sparing fixed dose combination, such as an integrase inhibitor and a protease inhibitor, may be the best strategy to challenge Gilead's market dominance.

Reasons to Purchase

• Understand the changing market dynamics of HIV drugs, success factors for leading brands and the commercial potential of late stage pipeline products
• Assess the impact of events such as patent expiries and new product launches on individual brands and the overall antiretroviral market.
• Obtain full global, country, class and product-specific forecasts of currently marketed and pipeline antiretrovirals from 2008 to 2018.