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Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2013
Introduction
PharmaVitae universe Rx
sales are forecast to expand at a 2007-13 CAGR of 2.4%, down 7.6
percentage points from 2001-07. The underlying cause of this
falling rate is the much-discussed genericization of small
molecule products. However, not all sectors are equally exposed,
prompting a shake-up of the industry and an increasing pursuit
of cost savings to sustain operating profit growth rates.
Scope
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Analysis of the sales outlook for the PharmaVitae universe of
leading prescription pharma companies to 2013
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Assessment of the impact of future launches and patent expiries
on sales growth compared to historical trends
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Segmentation of the market by therapy area and molecule type to
assess high- and low-growth sectors of the industry
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Assessment of the impact of cost-cutting on operating profit
growth in an environment of low and sometimes negative sales
growth
Highlights
The increasing assault of generics on leading pharma players'
staple diet of small molecule products will prompt a shake-up of
the industry. Companies' success will be heavily linked to their
exposure to this generic threat, with biologics and niche
players enjoying the greatest insulation and therefore often the
highest growth.
Many companies not in these hot sectors of the industry will be
compelled to pursue cost-cutting to maintain previous levels of
operating profit growth and some may resort to M&A activity to
bolster sales performance and/or strategically realign
themselves.
However, recourse to M&A should not be surprising when looked at
in the historical context, as this has already acted as the
PharmaVitae universe's primary growth driver in the period
between 2001 and 2007, accounting for a greater proportion of
growth than internal R&D operations.
Reasons to Purchase
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Gain a true understanding of the threats facing the
pharmaceutical industry's sales performance and which sectors
will be most heavily impacted
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Assess the effectiveness of cost-cutting programs on operating
profit performance in a period of low sales growth
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Evaluate the impact of M&A on companies' historical performance
and see how low top-line sales growth could prompt a further
wave of consolidation
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